Statistical Narratives 2010

« July Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

No Surprise - July Home Sales Fall
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS August 15th, 2010

As expected, with the real estate market attempting to find its own identity post-home buyer tax credit, home sales in July have fallen compared to one year ago when the stimulus credit was just beginning to have an impact. For Dane County, 370 homes and condominiums have been reported sold last month - compared to 789 in July of 2009. Year-to-date, 2010 sales remain 6.3 ahead of 2009.

Despite the drop in sales, the median price in Dane County rose in July by 6.2% and for the year remains virtually even with 2009 - $202,000 for 2010 compared to $204,650 in 2009. Again, these figures do not come as any surprise to area brokers and agents. Post-credit prices were anticipated to rebound slightly as the heavy stimulus to the lower end of the price range ended with the expiration of the tax credit. Many predict that prices will be fairly flat overall in 2010 - and so far this is coming true. The annual median sales price for 2009 was $202,000.

When breaking out the above figures between Dane County single family homes and condominiums, there was not a significant difference in sales reduction: single family homes sales fell 53.8% and condominium sales fell 50.3%. Median prices for single family homes rose 7.8% compared to a 3.8% increase for condominiums.

Like Dane County, the surrounding counties of Columbia, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa, Rock and Sauk Counties all experienced drops in sales for the month - with reductions compared to 2009 ranging from 30 - 46%. But all counties, with the exception of Grant County, are equal to or ahead of last year’s sales totals. All counties reported increased median prices for July, with Green and Iowa Counties now with year-to-date median prices above those of the same period last year.

Why has all of this been expected? First of all, as has been discussed previously, the tax credit stimulus had a marked impact on the "traditional" seasonal sales curve by inducing many purchases to be made prior to April 30, 2010. Secondly, we have been in an environment of uneven economic news - even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has stated that the economic outlook remains "unusually uncertain." Third, we are in an election year with candidates providing numerous conflicting positions on how they will solve the problems impacting the economy, employment and housing. All of this has served to create substantial uncertainty for the consumer. It is this uncertainty that is arguably delaying economic recovery because the consumer is not spending.

Why should someone buy a home today? Interest rates are at unprecedented lows - but how long can that last? By purchasing at today’s great rates, consumers can lock into a low cost of ownership well into the future. Everyone needs a place to live. Owning your home allows you to build long term financial wealth. Throughout all that has occurred in the past few years, home prices in south central Wisconsin have held up well. Real estate ownership continues to be a wise long term investment.

« June Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

POSITIVE HOME SALES FOR JUNE
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS July 15th, 2010

To no one's surprise, driven by the conclusion of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, June home sales for Dane County have exceeded those of one year ago - up 14% (805 - 711). This is the 11th time in the past 12 months that monthly sales for the current month have exceeded those reported one year previously. For the first half of 2010, sales are 25% ahead of the same period for 2009 (2990 - 2407).

For the second time this year, the median sale price in Dane County for the current month has exceeded that of one year ago. For June 2010, the median sale price of $207,000 is 3% more than last year ($201,000). Year to date, the median sale price is only 1% below that of 2009, and is 3.8% ahead of the median sale price reported at the start of the year ($202,000 vs. $194,625).

June sales of condominiums in Dane County rose significantly this year - 198 in 2010 versus 155 in 2009 - a 27.8% increase. Single family home sales rose as well - increasing 9.2% over last year. The median sale price for condominiums dropped slightly from $153,000 last June to $143,800 this year. On the other hand, the median sale price for single family homes rose 5.6% ($227,000 - $215,000).

So where is the market the most active? On the listing side, 52% of the single family homes are within the price range of $100,000 - $250,000. This percentage increases to 71% when the upper range is raised to $400,000. For condominium listings, 64% fall with $100,000 - $250,000 (and 79% when the upper range is $400,000). On the sales side, 57% of single family sales for the month occurred between $100,000 - $250,000. An additional 17% took place between $250,000 - $400,000. Sixty-three percent of the condominium sales were reported between $100,000 - $250,000, with 11% more reported between $250,000 - $400,000.

While inventories remain healthy in most price ranges, for the 5th time this year, new listings of condominiums were less than for the same month in 2009. After rising during the first 4 months of 2010 (compared to 2009), new listings of single family homes in June continued a trend started last month of declining when compared to one year ago.

What happens now that the substantial majority of closings from the Home Buyer Tax Credit have taken place (thanks to the extension passed by Congress, those that were not able to meet the June 30th deadline now have through September 30, 2010 to close)? As was expected within the industry, there has been a slow down in real estate activity in May and June. Why? As SCWMLS Director David Stark stated, "Many buyers accelerated their purchases into March and April in order to take advantage of the Tax Credit. Because of that, a vacuum was created in May and June. There are positive signs that vacuum is starting to be filled in again."

Going forward, it is anticipated that July 2010 will fall behind July 2009 (which was then receiving the early benefit of the Tax Credit stimulus), and very likely August 2010 will lag as well. SCWMLS President Paul Brown believes that the housing market can stand on its own and will show a "period of slow, steady recovery with small gains that generally do not generate splashy headlines." He reports recent increases in showings and open house activity, and is optimistic that buyers will take advantage of the low, low interest rates.

As SCWMLS Director Bob Courter sums up, "Consumers have been afraid and have had insecurity about their income stream. If they can overcome those fears, the inventory is great, the money supply is great, the interest rates are great - it's a great time to buy."

For more information:

SCWMLS President Paul Brown
First Weber Group, Inc.
608-221-8666
brownp@firstweber.com

SCWMLS Director/Treasurer David Stark
Stark Company Realtors
608-256-9018
dstark@starkhomes.com

SCWMLS Director Bob Courter
RL Courter Company
608-845-7582
rlcourter@rlcourter-co.com

« May Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

Home Sales Still Up In May
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS June 15th, 2010

As generally expected, due to the flurry of activity generated by the expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credit at the end of April, sales for Dane County were once again very strong in May - rising 18.4% compared to May 2009. For the first five months, 2010 sales are 28% ahead of 2009 (2170 to 1696). This marks the 10th time in the past 11 months that monthly sales for the current month have exceeded those reported one year previously.

For the remainder of the region, the news was somewhat mixed. May 2010 sales for Dodge, Green and Rock Counties all exceeded 2009. Grant County sales matched exactly one year ago. Columbia, Iowa and Sauk sales fell short when compared to last year. However, year-to-date, all counties except Grant County are ahead of 2009 - and Grant County is down less than 4%.

The 2010 median sales price for Dane County continues to fall just a bit below 2009 - $199,500 compared to $203,000 or -1.7%. For May, the median sales price was 2.3% below last May. This continues to reflect the shift in the market towards lower priced homes because of the influence of the Home Buyer Tax Credit.

Dane County single family home sales of 531 were 20% more than last year. The median sales price of $215,000 is slightly down - less than 2% - when compared to last year. Dane County condominium sales also continued to rise - 145 to 129 - with the median sales price of $145,000 up 2.3 over 2009 (for only the second time this year).

Homes and condominiums in the price range of $100,000 - $250,000 continue to receive the most attention. 53% of active single family home listings and 65% of condominiums available for purchase are within this range. When it comes to sales, 59% of single family homes sales and 68% of condominium sales fell between these same values.

Under the current provisions of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, home buyers have until June 30, 2010 to close their transactions. However, recent reports have indicated that the shear volume of such transactions is calling into question whether there is enough resources and time available to meet the demand. Home purchasers who otherwise qualify would be denied the tax credit because, through no fault of their own, the closing deadline is not met.

As a result, legislation has been introduced in Congress to extend the closing deadline until September 30. This extension does not extend the deadline for home buyers to qualify for the tax credit - that deadline remains April 30 for an accepted contract. This extension, if approved, only extends the deadline for closing those sales.

Is there life after the tax credit? Key indicators would suggest yes. Inventories are still ample in most locations and price ranges. Prices continue to be relatively stable, with no major fluctuations in any direction. Interest rates are even lower today than in April when the Tax Credit was winding down. With the historical spring/summer market seasonal increase in home buying activity, and a slight increase in consumer confidence as suggested by more than one area broker, many are cautiously optimistic that the market is on its way to "normal."

« April Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

Home Sales Strong In April
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS May 15th, 2010

As many predicted, sales for Dane County were very strong in April, with a dramatic increase over 2009 - 638 compared to 419 (a whopping 53% increase). Sales in the first four months of 2010 are 31% ahead of sales for the same period last year (1473 to 1125). This strong showing extends the trend started in July 2009 as for the 9th time in the last 10 months monthly sales in excess of those for the same month one year ago have been reported.

And the good news is being experienced throughout the region. Columbia, Dodge, Green, Iowa, Rock and Sauk all joined Dane County in exceeding sales over last year - not only for the month of April - but also for year-to-date. Double digit increases for year-to-date 2010 over 2009 range from 23% in Iowa County to 41% in Green and Sauk Counties. Only Grant County lags behind last year - but only by 5 sales.

As has been the case, the median price in Dane County continues to be a bit below one year ago. For April, the median price of $195,000 is 3.4% lower than last April. For the year, the median price is 2.2 behind 2009. As has been discussed previously, this is not to be totally unexpected as the influence of the Home Buyer Tax Credit has directed activity in the market toward the lower end of the market.

Single family sales in Dane County increased by 60% over April 2009 (486-304) while condominiums sales rose 64% over one year ago (152-93). Median prices for single family homes came in at $212,000 as compared to $217,500 last year (2.5% less) and for condominiums $149,500 as compared to $157,000 (4.7% less). The most active segments of the market continued to be within the prices of $100,000 - $250,000 for both single family homes and condominiums. More then one-half (54%) of active single family listings and 65% of condominiums available for purchase fall within that range. It stands to reason that 59% of single family sales and 77% of the condominium sales for April are between those same values.

The end of April marked the end of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, although buyers do have until June 30, 2010 to close their transactions. Given the flurry of activity reported by many brokers and agents at the end of April, it is anticipated that the months of May and June will continue to show solid sales. At the same time, all eyes will be on the market fundamentals as we move throughout the balance of 2010. It appears that the Fed wants to keep interest rates affordable and most predictions have mortgage rates staying below 6% for the remainder of the year. Inventories are expected to be ample for the balance of the year. Hopefully the momentum generated in the first four months will be strong and, along with historical seasonal increase in the spring/summer markets, will carry forward.

« March Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

March Housing Sales Continue To Be Positive
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS April 15th, 2010

Housing sales continued the trend started in July 2009 of generally positive year-over-year results. Dane County sales for March were ahead of last year - 374 as compared to 332. This is the 8th time in the past 9 months that monthly sales have exceeded the previous year. For the first quarter, the 830 sales have easily surpassed the 706 for the same time period in 2009.

As we reported last month, this positive news has not been limited to Dane County. Columbia, Dodge, Rock and Sauk Counties all have equaled Dane County by bettering sales over one year ago in eight of the last nine months. Sauk County sales are up compared to last year for the 7th month in a row and Rock County is working on a string of 6 straight positive months. Grant County sales dropped in February, breaking its string of 5 straight months of higher sales, but rebounded with higher sales in March.

The number of new listings increased in March in Dane County over the same time period last year, as was the case for most counties in south central Wisconsin. Overall, however, the total active inventory remains virtually the same - 9,063 active listings in 2010 compared to 9,126 in 2009 - for the eight county region.

As might be expected, the most active segments of the market are the price ranges of $100,000 - $199,999 and $200,000 - $299,999. This, of course, has been largely driven by the Home Buyers Tax Credit. Throughout the region, 42.7% of the active listings fall within the $100,000 - $199,999 range and 22.6% of the listings are within $200,000 - $299,999. Condominiums continue to provide a healthy percentage of active listings - 20% in March.

It stands to reason that the bulk of the March sales would also likely be found in these very same price ranges. Forty-five percent of the March home sales were between $100,000 - $199,999 while an additional 21.5% occurred in the price range of $200,000 - $299,999. With respect to condominiums, almost 61% of the sales for March were between $100,000 - $199,999 with 20.2% between $200,000 - $299,999.

March median prices in Dane County reversed a previous downward trend - $205,000 as compared to $198,000 one year ago and $197,750 in February 2010. For the first quarter, the median sales price for Dane County was $200,000, just slightly below the 2009 first quarter median sales price of $203,000.

Buyers have only through April 30, 2010 to obtain an accepted offer in order to take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. While closings of home sales are expected to remain positive through the end of June (the last day for closings in order to qualify for the Tax Credit), there is a fair amount of curiosity as to the impact on the market "post Tax Credit." Hopefully a strong foundation has been built: inventories are strong; interest rates continue to be very affordable; prices are within reach. Employment and economic recovery will also be strong factors in the success of the housing market as we move through the remainder of 2010.

« February Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

2010 Off to Positive Start
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS March 15th, 2010

Through the first two months of 2010, home sales for South Central Wisconsin continue the positive results started in the last half of 2009. After a very slow start one year ago, 2009 sales nudged ahead of 2008 at year end. The start of 2010 hopefully is carrying that momentum forward.

Dane County sales of 270 single family homes/condominiums for February were substantially higher than the 223 sales reported for the same time last year. This is the 7th time in the last 8 months that monthly sales have exceeded the sales of the previous year. For the first two months of 2010, Dane County sales are ahead of last year by 79 units (453-374) - a 22% increase.

This positive news has not been limited to Dane County. Columbia, Dodge, Rock and Sauk Counties all have equaled Dane County by bettering sales over one year ago in seven of the last months. Sauk County has a streak of 6 months in a row of equal or better sales and Rock County is working on a string of 5 months in a row. Grant County sales dropped in February, breaking its string of 5 straight months of higher sales. Green County is trailing only slightly - exceeding sales in 6 of the last 8 months. Iowa County sales dropped this February in comparison to last year, but total sales for 2010 are ahead of 2009.

Interest rates remain at excellent levels - currently hovering around the 5% level for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. WHEDA is back in the home loan market with its new WHEDA Fannie Mae Advantage program - a fixed rate 30 year mortgage designed for first time homebuyers. Yet qualification requirements continue to be higher than years past.

Inventory of active listings has remained healthy and relatively stable - but is still much higher overall than 2005 when the increase in supply began its rapid increase. Median prices for the first two months reflect a decrease - down approximately 6% for Dane County and approximately 7% for the South Central Wisconsin region. This change reflects, in part, the shift in the market influenced by the Home Buyer Tax Credit. This influence is likely to continue over the next six weeks, until the expiration of the Credit (accepted offers must be in place no later than April 30 with closing to be no later than June 30, 2010).

Statistical Narratives 2009

« December Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

2009 Home Sales Finish Strong
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS

South Central Wisconsin home sales in 2009 may have begun at a whisper, but the volume was turned up the end of the year.

Dane County home sales for the fourth quarter of 2009 were 37% higher than the fourth quarter of 2008, and 9% higher than the fourth quarter of 2007. While typically the fourth quarter accounts for about 17% of the total home sales for the year, the fourth quarter brought in 22% of the 2009 sales for Dane County. With the close of the third quarter, 2009 sales in Dane County were lagging behind 2008 by 4.5%, but fourth quarter sales nudged 2009 annual sales ahead of 2008 by 2%. There were 5,451 homes recorded sold in Dane County in 2009 as reported through the South Central Wisconsin MLS.

For the whole South Central Wisconsin region (Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa, Rock, and Sauk Counties), 2009 fourth quarter sales were 39% higher than 2008, and 12% higher than 2007. There were 11,578 homes recorded sold through the South Central Wisconsin MLS in 2009. This represents an increase of 5.7% when comparing 2009 to 2008. When looking at the individual counties within the South Central Wisconsin region, Columbia, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa and Sauk all join Dane with annual 2009 sales outpacing 2008. Only sales in Rock County lagged behind 2008, but even this was by only 1.6%.

Strong fourth quarter activity can be attributed to buyers pushing to make the original first-time home buyer tax credit deadline of November 30, which has been extended and expanded to include some existing homeowners. Buyers now have until April 30 to secure an accepted offer, and then until June 30 to close. Because of this push to close by November 30, some feared December sales numbers would be weak. While December of 2009 did finish 45 sales behind December of 2008 in Dane County, December 2009 actually outpaced December of 2008 for the whole South Central Wisconsin region by 20 sales.

« November Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

November home sales in Dane County were more than double the number reported last November. To be more precise, this November posted sales 111.6% higher than last November! This unusual increase can be attributed to buyers pushing to make the original first-time home buyer tax credit deadline of November 30, which has been extended and expanded to include some existing homeowners. Buyers now have until April 30 to secure an accepted offer, and then until June 30 to close.
November marks five months in a row in which Dane County home sales outpaced last year. While the first half of 2009 started out slow when compared to 2008, the second half of 2009 has shown an increase of 24% over the same five month period last year.

This substantial increase in the number of homes sold was also seen throughout the whole South Central Wisconsin region, which saw an increase of 81.7% as a whole for this November as compared to last. The percentage increase in sales over last year for the second half of 2009 was slightly higher than Dane County, with the South Central region as a whole posting an increase of 25% as compared to July - November of 2008.

The number of homes for sale, although still strong, continues to track behind 2008 as has been the case all year. At the end of November, there were 4,336 homes available for sale in Dane County, which is a decrease of 11.8% as compared to last November. In South Central Wisconsin there were 11,930 homes available which is down 8.8% compared to November of 2008. Almost 60% of the homes available for sale in the South Central WI region are priced below $200,000.

Home buyers in South Central Wisconsin will continue to benefit from a healthy inventory of reasonably priced homes, historically low interest rates, and the extended and expanded home buyers tax credit as they enter 2010.

« October Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

Wisconsin home sales are up. South Central Wisconsin regional home sales are up. Dane County home sales are up. For the first time since the recession began nearly two years ago, home sales are up across all three geographic levels as compared to last year at this time.

Last week, the Wisconsin REALTORS Association released third quarter sales numbers that showed an increase of 5.8 percent for the state, and a 12.5 percent increase for the South Central Wisconsin region as compared to the third quarter of 2008. The South Central Wisconsin region showed the strongest growth in the state. For this same time period, Dane County saw an 11 percent increase, which represents almost 200 more homes sold in the third quarter this year as compared to that same July - September time period last year.

This positive performance has continued with October posting the fifth straight month of sales above last year for South Central Wisconsin, and the fourth straight month for Dane County. October sales for South Central Wisconsin were 32% higher, and Dane County sales were 25% higher than last October.

There is little doubt that this momentum is in part due to first-time home buyers responding to the home buyer tax credit which was due to expire in November, but was recently extended through April. In looking at Dane County sales over the past four years, in 2006, 2007, and 2008, homes selling for under $200,000 accounted for 41-43% of total homes sold. That number has jumped to 48.5% in 2009. While this is good news for sellers who have homes priced below $200,000, it is not necessarily bad news for sellers in the upper ranges, as sales in the lower ranges release those sellers to become buyers of homes in higher price tiers. In addition, the newly added tax credit for existing homeowners who have lived in their current residence for five of the prior eight years, and increased income allowances will provide immediate incentive for a much larger group looking to purchase.

« September Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

The stock market has once again reached the 10,000 level and there seems to be a more optimistic view of the market in general. Home sales have shown a nice rebound in comparison to September of last year, and mortgage rates have remained very affordable. In the eight county reporting district tracked by the South Central Wisconsin MLS, home sales increased from last September in seven of the eight counties. Only Rock County lagged last year's results and Dane County showed nearly a 20 percent increase in reported sales activity.

The $8,000 tax credit sunset is rapidly closing in and we have seen many first time buyers take advantage of the incentive. Homes in the $100,000 to $200,000 bracket constitute approximately 42% of all active residential listings on the South Central Wisconsin MLS, but account for over 47% of all sales. In contrast, homes with list prices of $300,000 and up make up nearly 20% of all active residential listings, but account for only about 8.5% of all sales.

The September results mark the third straight month that sales in Dane County surpassed the same month from last year. An extension of the tax credit beyond November may be the determining factor in how the balance of 2009 performs. Certainly inventory and mortgage rates are making this a buyer's market and the credit has helped get many consumers off the fence. Confidence seems to have gained ground and recent articles in the local newspapers have been supportive. It is encouraging to see the media once again get behind the message we have been sending for the last year, "It's a great time to buy a home!"

« August Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

August statistics for residential properties in Dane County showed the second straight month of increases in both average selling price and median selling price. Although both indicators are down for year to date numbers, we have seen two consecutive months of increases, indicating that we may have seen some recovery in the mid to upper priced home market. Residential sales also showed a slight increase over last August's totals, marking the second straight month that 2009 exceeded 2008. On August 31st, the total active residential listings in Dane County were over 11% less than August 31st, of 2008. When taken individually, these statistics aren't particularly impressive; but they are encouraging when we look at where our market has been for the last two years. In four of our eight primary reporting counties, the median price was actually higher than in 2008.

Most economists now agree that we are in a recovery mode. Although nearly all concede that the recovery will be slow and prolonged, just getting some positive news back in the media will go a long way towards instilling confidence in the market. Foreclosures and short sales have, and will continue to be issues in our market, but with more stability in the financial market, and continued low mortgage rates, some of the fence sitting buyers are more eager to commit.

« July Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

The July sales statistics show some very positive signs of recovery in our local markets. Looking exclusively at the Dane County residential sales, the 754 reported sales compares favorably with the 706 reported sales of July 2008. This is the first time that a reporting month has shown an increase from the prior year since August of 2007 exceeded August of 2006. In fact, in all eight of the primary counties reporting through the South Central Wisconsin MLS, every county experienced an increase from last July. For each of the last five years, July has shown a drop in sales activity from June levels and an indication that the busiest part of the year is behind us in the Dane County market. It’s nice to see that July sales have continued the six month trend of increased activity.

Inventories are slowly reducing in most geographic areas, but the absorption rate is significantly faster in the lower price brackets. The tax credits available for first time buyers have really made a difference in our market mix, and it’s easy to see why the average and median sales prices have come down. With time running out for taking advantage of the credit, buyers need to make sure they have submitted their offers, and locked down closing dates that give them some flexibility in case changes need to be made on closing statements. With the new rules and regulations on the truth in lending statements, relying on a last second closing has become risky business.