Statistical Narratives 2011

« February 2011 Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

February Home Sale Slide
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS March 14th, 2011

After a positive start in January (222 sales), home sales in Dane County slid back a bit in February to 194. To no one's surprise, this number is well behind last year when the final home buyer stimulus program was in full effect. For the overall SCWMLS, the same slip in total sales also took place - 498 in February compared to 517 in January. Columbia and Dodge Counties bucked the trend in the 8 county SCWMLS region with increased sales in February compared to last month.

The median sales price for Dane County in February of $199,250 compared well to last year ($196,750) but trails that of 2009 ($208,900). For the entire SCWMLS, the February median sales price ($130,000) is below that of each of the past two years. It is difficult to reach much of a conclusion as to these figures at this time given that we are only two months into 2011. We are reminded that the median price represents the midpoint of sales for the reported time period.

New listings continued a downward trend with all 8 counties reporting fewer new listings this year than in 2010. For both Dane County and the entire SCWMLS, new listings decreased 26%. - representing the lowest totals since early this century.

For the entire SCWMLS, the most popular price ranges for active listings of single family homes continued to be between $100,000 and $200,000 (39%) and $200,000 - $300,000 (22%). For condominiums, 44% of the active listings are priced under $160,000 with 29% priced between $160,000 and $250,000. It follows that 33% of home sales were between $100,000 and $200,000 and another 18% between $200,000 and $300,000. Sixty-eight per cent of condominium sales were below $160,000 and 26% between $160,000 and $250,000.

It bears repeating that the first half of 2011 will suffer by comparison to the first half of 2010 because of the home buyer tax credit. Over 60% of the total sales for 2010 took place in the first six months. The expectation is that 2011 will be the year to return to a more seasonal sales curve without such stimulus plans in place to distort the timing of sales.

« January 2011 Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

January Home Sales Start Year on Positive Note
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS February 14th, 2011

Home sales in Dane County are starting off 2011 on a positive note - exceeding the past two January reports, and matching that of 2008. For the eight county region serviced principally by the SCWMLS, all counties but one met or exceeded last January’s sales. This year will be a very interesting one for the housing market as it marks the first year since 2008 that no governmental housing stimulus programs are in place or expected.

The median sale price in Dane County was 4.8% ahead of last year for January, when it could be argued that the then existing tax credit was skewing the market into lower price ranges. On the other hand, the $203,912 figure compares favorably with the average median prices for January since 2008 ($203,200). Another notable figure in January was the decrease in new listings - down 22.7% from last year - and the lowest monthly total since 2002. Total active listings in the county are also down - approaching the inventory level of late 2005. Like Dane County, active inventories have fallen in all but Columbia and Green Counties, while Iowa County has remained at the same level as one year ago.

For the entire SCWMLS, the most popular price ranges for sales in January were between $100,000 and $200,000 (38% of all sales) and $200,000 - $300,000 (16% of all sales). It stands to reason that the most popular prices for active listings is the same: $100,000 - $200,000 (39%) followed by $200,000 - $300,000 (22%)). For condominiums, 62% of all sales were under $160,000 while 49% of active listings are $160,000 and below.

When breaking down the figures in Dane County, single family homes sales accounted for 179 of the 222 total reported. The single family homes sales are the highest January total since 2007. The 43 condominium sales trailed last year by 5 but were ahead of 2009. Each category also showed a significant drop in new listings for the month - down 21.5% for single family homes and down 25.9% for condominiums.

These figures seem to support the general good news reported recently about the economy. We have just completed a positive Holiday selling season. Job creation is predicted to continue. The stock market has been on a steady climb. Auto sales along with manufacturing activity have improved. Inflation appears to be in check. And interest rates are still low (but showing signs of creeping up). Hopefully these are signs of growing consumer confidence - a confidence that will give buyers the courage to move forward while the tremendous home buying advantages are still here.

With all of this hopeful news, we must be reminded that the first half of 2011 may suffer by comparison to the first half of 2010. Because of the home buyer tax credit, over 60% of the total sales for 2010 took place in the first six months. The expectation is that without such stimulus plans in place to distort the timing of sales, 2011 will be the year to return to normalcy.

Statistical Narratives 2010

« December Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

December Home Sales End on Slightly Up
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS January 12th, 2011

For the first time since June, monthly Dane County home sales exceeded sales from the same month one year ago. For December 2010, the 273 reported sales are 4% higher than sales reported in December 2009.

While the total sales pale in relationship to December results in previous years, it should also be noted that December 2010 and 2009 are two months in which a home buyer tax credit did not factor into buyers' decisions to purchase. There was no tax credit in place in 2010; in December 2009, the tax credit had just been extended but arguably the incentive to beat a deadline was still months away.

December 2010 sales totals were also higher in Grant, Green and Sauk Counties. For the entire year, Dane County sales trailed 2009 by 10%. However, for the overall SCWMLS reporting area, annual sales were 7% below one year ago.

Median price in Dane County - representing the midpoint of all closed sales - was $225,058 last month as compared to $192,000 in December of 2009. For the year, the median price for 2010 was $207,000 and $202,000 for 2009. Annual median prices in the region compared to one year ago were:

2010 2009
Columbia $140,000 $142,450
Dodge $115,000 $115,150
Grant $98,500 $101,000
Green $128,900 $128,000
Iowa $133,900 $129,000
Rock $100,750 $115,000
Sauk $144,000 $140,000

Breaking down the figures in Dane County between single family homes and condominiums, single family home sales accounted for 76% of the total sales in December (206 to 67). The December median price comparison shows:

2010 2009
Single Family $240,000 $225,750
Condominiums $148,500 $157,450

For the year, single family homes sales were 3774 (compared to 4206 in 2009) with 1144 condominium sales reported (1279 reported in 2009). The annual median price for the two classes shows:

2010 2009
Single Family $223,931 $218,100
Condominiums $149,450 $150,000

Inventory of active residential listings has reached a 12 month low- and it will be interesting to note, in the absence of a housing stimulus, how fast inventory rises (if at all) as we approach the spring market. Even with the reduction, ample opportunities are available in most prices ranges and locations.

What do we expect in 2011? We know - and recent reports continue to support this fact - that people still want to own their own home. However, it appears that they lack confidence to do so. A report in the January 2011 Capital Region Business Journal asked a number of area business leaders what they expect for this year:

Other experts suggest that employment will be slow to recover. Certainly the creation of jobs is a primary focus of the new Governor. But it's good to see the generally positive outlook by the business leaders above.

We look at 2011 with modest optimism. Consumers have been holding back on big-purchase items (although recent car sales have shown a positive movement). Absent any foreseeable housing stimulus packages, 2011 could return to a more normal seasonal curve. For those who have the confidence to take advantage of historically favorable market conditions - prices, interest rates, inventory and affordability - their 2011 could be great.

« November Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

November Sales - Market Remains Sluggish
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS December 13th, 2010

As has been the case in the second half of 2010, November home sales remain slow compared with one year ago. For Dane County, the 234 reported sales are just under one-half of the sales reported last November. This comes as no surprise as sales in November 2009 reflect the end of the initial Home Buyer Tax Credit closings. The second Home Buyer Tax Credit, expiring at the end of June, served to push sales into the first six months of 2010, many of which arguably would have taken place normally throughout the year. However, when compared to 2008, a market without a housing stimulus in place, 2010 sales were slightly ahead. For the year to date, sales trail last year by just 11%.

While most counties in the SCWMLS region reported drops in sales for November, Green County saw a modest increase and Iowa County missed a repeat of last year by only one sale. With the exception of Grant County, all reported sales above or very close to November 2008.

Median prices, on the other hand, continue to compare favorably with one year ago. The median price in Dane County is 10% ahead of last year for November, and continues to outpace 2009 in year-to-date comparison ($205,500 v. 202,400). This same price comparison is reflected in most counties throughout the region as well. Median price represents the midpoint of all closed sales, ranked from lowest to highest price, within a defined geographic area for a particular time period, as reported to the SCWMLS.

When breaking down the figures in Dane County, single family homes sales accounted for 191 of the 234 total reported. Median prices for both single family homes and condominiums were ahead of 2009:

Single Family Homes $224,000 (2010) $210,000 (2009)
Condominiums $157,000 (2010) $149,000 (2009)

Buyers appear to be waiting for evidence that the market has hit bottom. But by waiting, buyers may be losing purchasing power. Recently, interest rates have moved from 4.25% to 4.75% on a 30 year mortgage. Just an increase of one-half of one percent is a difference of almost $60.00/month on a $200,000 mortgage (over $700/year). On the other hand, that same increase in the interest rate means the buyer can only afford a mortgage of $189,000 in order to retain the same monthly payment.

It is being suggested that this is an historic buying opportunity – and with interest rates moving higher, inventories starting to decline – is it possible that we have already gone beyond the bottom in terms of price and rates? As shown above, even if prices fall a bit, interest rate increase quickly offset any benefit. Therefore, now may be the time to take advantage of the market. Sooner may be better than later…

« October Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

October Sales - Home Buyers Continue Their Wait
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS November 12th, 2010

Despite mortgage interest rates at historic lows, providing buyers with buying power at historic highs, and despite an ample supply of homes available for sale at stable prices, home sales once again fell in October when compared to one year ago. This marks a continuation of lower sales since the end to the home buyer tax credit in June. October 2009 sales reflected the influence of the tax credit in place at that time.

October sales were down not only in Dane County but throughout the 8 county region of Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa, Rock and Sauk Counties. Year-to-date, Dane County trails last year by 7.4% yet the entire SCWMLS is virtually equal with last year (9808 v. 9898).

Even with the continued sales decline, median prices for the year remain stable, with several counties showing modest increases. For the fourth month in a row, the median price in Dane County rose compared to the same month in 2009. For the year, the Dane County median price of $205,000 is slightly ahead of the 2009 annual median price of $202,000.

October figures for single family homes and condominiums in Dane County were mixed. Sales were down for both categories compared to 2009. However, the median price for single family homes rose to $220,000 from $210,000 last year while the median price for condominiums dropped from $151,100 to $139,950. Inventories continue to drop for condominiums while rising for single family homes.

All indicators point to a housing market waiting to recover - but one that is currently stuck. The recent 8th Annual Housing Opportunity Pulse Survey by the National Association of Realtors found that 77% of homeowners and renters believe home ownership is a good financial decision and two-thirds say now is a good time to buy. 63% of renters surveyed nationally hold home ownership as their highest or modestly highest priority. Yet economic anxiety and employment confidence continue to be major factors in their decision to enter the marketplace. So the wait continues...

« September Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

September Sales - Still Waiting For Buyers
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS October 12th, 2010

Home sales fell in September compared to one year ago as the market continues to await the return of home buyers post-tax credit. For Dane County, 287 homes and condominiums have been reported sold last month, compared to 465 in September of 2009. Year-to-date, 2010 sales are 3.8% behind the pace set in 2009.

A drop in September sales is not unexpected. For more than 10 years, sales from August to September have declined. Last month we reported August sales of 404 - resulting in a drop of 29%. Over the past five years, the decline in sales from August to September has averaged 33%.

The median price in Dane County showed a sharp increase of 14% in September, from $195,000 last year to $222,950. For the first nine months of 2010, the median price is $205,000, which is slightly ahead of the annual median sales price for 2009 of $202,000 and keeping pace with inflation.

When breaking out the above figures between Dane County single family homes and condominiums, single family homes sales fell 37% and condominium sales fell slightly more at 42%. Median prices for single family homes rose 3.4% ($226,500 vs. $219,016) while condominiums showed a 24% increase ($175,000 vs. $140,950), reflecting a shift away from the influence of the previous home buyer tax credit in the market. One other point of interest in the condominium market is the reduction in available inventory - 1,586 units this year compared to 1,907 units in 2009.

The surrounding counties of Columbia, Dodge, Green and Sauk Counties are all maintaining sales paces just slightly behind 2009. Rock County is 4% ahead in sales year-to-date. Grant and Iowa Counties are trailing last year by 10-11%. Green, Iowa and Sauk Counties show year-to-date median prices above those of the same period last year.

As we have reported previously, the home buyer continues to stand by. Many economic indicators point to a gradual improvement. The unsound lending and credit practices have been driven from the marketplace and are unlikely to reappear in the future. It is difficult to imagine more attractive and affordable home buying conditions - historically low interest rates, available inventory and stable pricing. Parenting.com recently ranked Madison as the #3 Best City for Families for 2010 - giving it an "A" for overall home values, safety and solid schools.

Homeownership will continue to be an important means of accumulating wealth over the long term - for many, the most important means of securing their future. It is the place where families are raised and memories created. Yet, even though there may be no better time to buy than now, until the consumer regains confidence, the waiting game is likely to continue.

« August Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

August Sales - Less Worse
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS September 13th, 2010

Home sales in August fell compared to one year ago - but the drop is less than July - as the market shows signs of finding its own way post-home buyer tax credit. For Dane County, 404 homes and condominiums have been reported sold last month, compared to 610 in August of 2009. Percentage-wise this is a drop of 33.8% compared to July's drop of 53%. Year-to-date, 2010 sales remain ever so slightly ahead of 2009.

The drop in August sales is not a surprise to area brokers and agents. The expectation is that sales will begin to even out throughout the end of the year after seeing a marked shift in the timing of sales earlier in the year to meet the April 30 tax credit deadline. A potential indicator is the fact that for the first time in the past 5 years, sales from July to August have increased - bucking the previous trend of fewer sales in August than July.

The median price in Dane County rose again for the month in August - this time by 4.8%, and for the year remains even with 2009 at $205,000. This is slightly ahead of the annual median sales price for 2009 of $202,000. So despite the fall in the number of transactions, median prices remain solid.

When breaking out the above figures between Dane County single family homes and condominiums, there was not a significant difference in sales reduction: single family homes sales fell 34.4% and condominium sales fell slightly less at 32.7%. Median prices for single family homes rose 4.9% compared to a 6.4% decrease for condominiums.

Like Dane County, the surrounding counties of Columbia, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa, Rock and Sauk Counties all experienced drops in sales for the month. However, also like Dane County, Columbia, Dodge, Green, Rock and Sauk Counties remain virtually at or ahead of last year's sale volume. Green and Iowa Counties continue to show year-to-date median prices above those of the same period last year.

The uneven economic news that we reported last month remains. The consumer continues to "fence sit." Yet there may be no better time to buy than now. Affordability is high - interest rates are at 40+ year lows. The economy will recover and jobs will be created. Prices and rates will then go up. Waiting may not be the answer.

Homeownership will continue to be an important means of accumulating wealth over the long term - for many, the most important means of securing their future.

« July Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

No Surprise - July Home Sales Fall
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS August 15th, 2010

As expected, with the real estate market attempting to find its own identity post-home buyer tax credit, home sales in July have fallen compared to one year ago when the stimulus credit was just beginning to have an impact. For Dane County, 370 homes and condominiums have been reported sold last month - compared to 789 in July of 2009. Year-to-date, 2010 sales remain 6.3 ahead of 2009.

Despite the drop in sales, the median price in Dane County rose in July by 6.2% and for the year remains virtually even with 2009 - $202,000 for 2010 compared to $204,650 in 2009. Again, these figures do not come as any surprise to area brokers and agents. Post-credit prices were anticipated to rebound slightly as the heavy stimulus to the lower end of the price range ended with the expiration of the tax credit. Many predict that prices will be fairly flat overall in 2010 - and so far this is coming true. The annual median sales price for 2009 was $202,000.

When breaking out the above figures between Dane County single family homes and condominiums, there was not a significant difference in sales reduction: single family homes sales fell 53.8% and condominium sales fell 50.3%. Median prices for single family homes rose 7.8% compared to a 3.8% increase for condominiums.

Like Dane County, the surrounding counties of Columbia, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa, Rock and Sauk Counties all experienced drops in sales for the month - with reductions compared to 2009 ranging from 30 - 46%. But all counties, with the exception of Grant County, are equal to or ahead of last year’s sales totals. All counties reported increased median prices for July, with Green and Iowa Counties now with year-to-date median prices above those of the same period last year.

Why has all of this been expected? First of all, as has been discussed previously, the tax credit stimulus had a marked impact on the "traditional" seasonal sales curve by inducing many purchases to be made prior to April 30, 2010. Secondly, we have been in an environment of uneven economic news - even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has stated that the economic outlook remains "unusually uncertain." Third, we are in an election year with candidates providing numerous conflicting positions on how they will solve the problems impacting the economy, employment and housing. All of this has served to create substantial uncertainty for the consumer. It is this uncertainty that is arguably delaying economic recovery because the consumer is not spending.

Why should someone buy a home today? Interest rates are at unprecedented lows - but how long can that last? By purchasing at today’s great rates, consumers can lock into a low cost of ownership well into the future. Everyone needs a place to live. Owning your home allows you to build long term financial wealth. Throughout all that has occurred in the past few years, home prices in south central Wisconsin have held up well. Real estate ownership continues to be a wise long term investment.

« June Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

POSITIVE HOME SALES FOR JUNE
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS July 15th, 2010

To no one's surprise, driven by the conclusion of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, June home sales for Dane County have exceeded those of one year ago - up 14% (805 - 711). This is the 11th time in the past 12 months that monthly sales for the current month have exceeded those reported one year previously. For the first half of 2010, sales are 25% ahead of the same period for 2009 (2990 - 2407).

For the second time this year, the median sale price in Dane County for the current month has exceeded that of one year ago. For June 2010, the median sale price of $207,000 is 3% more than last year ($201,000). Year to date, the median sale price is only 1% below that of 2009, and is 3.8% ahead of the median sale price reported at the start of the year ($202,000 vs. $194,625).

June sales of condominiums in Dane County rose significantly this year - 198 in 2010 versus 155 in 2009 - a 27.8% increase. Single family home sales rose as well - increasing 9.2% over last year. The median sale price for condominiums dropped slightly from $153,000 last June to $143,800 this year. On the other hand, the median sale price for single family homes rose 5.6% ($227,000 - $215,000).

So where is the market the most active? On the listing side, 52% of the single family homes are within the price range of $100,000 - $250,000. This percentage increases to 71% when the upper range is raised to $400,000. For condominium listings, 64% fall with $100,000 - $250,000 (and 79% when the upper range is $400,000). On the sales side, 57% of single family sales for the month occurred between $100,000 - $250,000. An additional 17% took place between $250,000 - $400,000. Sixty-three percent of the condominium sales were reported between $100,000 - $250,000, with 11% more reported between $250,000 - $400,000.

While inventories remain healthy in most price ranges, for the 5th time this year, new listings of condominiums were less than for the same month in 2009. After rising during the first 4 months of 2010 (compared to 2009), new listings of single family homes in June continued a trend started last month of declining when compared to one year ago.

What happens now that the substantial majority of closings from the Home Buyer Tax Credit have taken place (thanks to the extension passed by Congress, those that were not able to meet the June 30th deadline now have through September 30, 2010 to close)? As was expected within the industry, there has been a slow down in real estate activity in May and June. Why? As SCWMLS Director David Stark stated, "Many buyers accelerated their purchases into March and April in order to take advantage of the Tax Credit. Because of that, a vacuum was created in May and June. There are positive signs that vacuum is starting to be filled in again."

Going forward, it is anticipated that July 2010 will fall behind July 2009 (which was then receiving the early benefit of the Tax Credit stimulus), and very likely August 2010 will lag as well. SCWMLS President Paul Brown believes that the housing market can stand on its own and will show a "period of slow, steady recovery with small gains that generally do not generate splashy headlines." He reports recent increases in showings and open house activity, and is optimistic that buyers will take advantage of the low, low interest rates.

As SCWMLS Director Bob Courter sums up, "Consumers have been afraid and have had insecurity about their income stream. If they can overcome those fears, the inventory is great, the money supply is great, the interest rates are great - it's a great time to buy."

For more information:

SCWMLS President Paul Brown
First Weber Group, Inc.
608-221-8666
brownp@firstweber.com

SCWMLS Director/Treasurer David Stark
Stark Company Realtors
608-256-9018
dstark@starkhomes.com

SCWMLS Director Bob Courter
RL Courter Company
608-845-7582
rlcourter@rlcourter-co.com


« May Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

Home Sales Still Up In May
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS June 15th, 2010

As generally expected, due to the flurry of activity generated by the expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credit at the end of April, sales for Dane County were once again very strong in May - rising 18.4% compared to May 2009. For the first five months, 2010 sales are 28% ahead of 2009 (2170 to 1696). This marks the 10th time in the past 11 months that monthly sales for the current month have exceeded those reported one year previously.

For the remainder of the region, the news was somewhat mixed. May 2010 sales for Dodge, Green and Rock Counties all exceeded 2009. Grant County sales matched exactly one year ago. Columbia, Iowa and Sauk sales fell short when compared to last year. However, year-to-date, all counties except Grant County are ahead of 2009 - and Grant County is down less than 4%.

The 2010 median sales price for Dane County continues to fall just a bit below 2009 - $199,500 compared to $203,000 or -1.7%. For May, the median sales price was 2.3% below last May. This continues to reflect the shift in the market towards lower priced homes because of the influence of the Home Buyer Tax Credit.

Dane County single family home sales of 531 were 20% more than last year. The median sales price of $215,000 is slightly down - less than 2% - when compared to last year. Dane County condominium sales also continued to rise - 145 to 129 - with the median sales price of $145,000 up 2.3 over 2009 (for only the second time this year).

Homes and condominiums in the price range of $100,000 - $250,000 continue to receive the most attention. 53% of active single family home listings and 65% of condominiums available for purchase are within this range. When it comes to sales, 59% of single family homes sales and 68% of condominium sales fell between these same values.

Under the current provisions of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, home buyers have until June 30, 2010 to close their transactions. However, recent reports have indicated that the shear volume of such transactions is calling into question whether there is enough resources and time available to meet the demand. Home purchasers who otherwise qualify would be denied the tax credit because, through no fault of their own, the closing deadline is not met.

As a result, legislation has been introduced in Congress to extend the closing deadline until September 30. This extension does not extend the deadline for home buyers to qualify for the tax credit - that deadline remains April 30 for an accepted contract. This extension, if approved, only extends the deadline for closing those sales.

Is there life after the tax credit? Key indicators would suggest yes. Inventories are still ample in most locations and price ranges. Prices continue to be relatively stable, with no major fluctuations in any direction. Interest rates are even lower today than in April when the Tax Credit was winding down. With the historical spring/summer market seasonal increase in home buying activity, and a slight increase in consumer confidence as suggested by more than one area broker, many are cautiously optimistic that the market is on its way to "normal."

« April Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

Home Sales Strong In April
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS May 15th, 2010

As many predicted, sales for Dane County were very strong in April, with a dramatic increase over 2009 - 638 compared to 419 (a whopping 53% increase). Sales in the first four months of 2010 are 31% ahead of sales for the same period last year (1473 to 1125). This strong showing extends the trend started in July 2009 as for the 9th time in the last 10 months monthly sales in excess of those for the same month one year ago have been reported.

And the good news is being experienced throughout the region. Columbia, Dodge, Green, Iowa, Rock and Sauk all joined Dane County in exceeding sales over last year - not only for the month of April - but also for year-to-date. Double digit increases for year-to-date 2010 over 2009 range from 23% in Iowa County to 41% in Green and Sauk Counties. Only Grant County lags behind last year - but only by 5 sales.

As has been the case, the median price in Dane County continues to be a bit below one year ago. For April, the median price of $195,000 is 3.4% lower than last April. For the year, the median price is 2.2 behind 2009. As has been discussed previously, this is not to be totally unexpected as the influence of the Home Buyer Tax Credit has directed activity in the market toward the lower end of the market.

Single family sales in Dane County increased by 60% over April 2009 (486-304) while condominiums sales rose 64% over one year ago (152-93). Median prices for single family homes came in at $212,000 as compared to $217,500 last year (2.5% less) and for condominiums $149,500 as compared to $157,000 (4.7% less). The most active segments of the market continued to be within the prices of $100,000 - $250,000 for both single family homes and condominiums. More then one-half (54%) of active single family listings and 65% of condominiums available for purchase fall within that range. It stands to reason that 59% of single family sales and 77% of the condominium sales for April are between those same values.

The end of April marked the end of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, although buyers do have until June 30, 2010 to close their transactions. Given the flurry of activity reported by many brokers and agents at the end of April, it is anticipated that the months of May and June will continue to show solid sales. At the same time, all eyes will be on the market fundamentals as we move throughout the balance of 2010. It appears that the Fed wants to keep interest rates affordable and most predictions have mortgage rates staying below 6% for the remainder of the year. Inventories are expected to be ample for the balance of the year. Hopefully the momentum generated in the first four months will be strong and, along with historical seasonal increase in the spring/summer markets, will carry forward.

« March Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

March Housing Sales Continue To Be Positive
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS April 15th, 2010

Housing sales continued the trend started in July 2009 of generally positive year-over-year results. Dane County sales for March were ahead of last year - 374 as compared to 332. This is the 8th time in the past 9 months that monthly sales have exceeded the previous year. For the first quarter, the 830 sales have easily surpassed the 706 for the same time period in 2009.

As we reported last month, this positive news has not been limited to Dane County. Columbia, Dodge, Rock and Sauk Counties all have equaled Dane County by bettering sales over one year ago in eight of the last nine months. Sauk County sales are up compared to last year for the 7th month in a row and Rock County is working on a string of 6 straight positive months. Grant County sales dropped in February, breaking its string of 5 straight months of higher sales, but rebounded with higher sales in March.

The number of new listings increased in March in Dane County over the same time period last year, as was the case for most counties in south central Wisconsin. Overall, however, the total active inventory remains virtually the same - 9,063 active listings in 2010 compared to 9,126 in 2009 - for the eight county region.

As might be expected, the most active segments of the market are the price ranges of $100,000 - $199,999 and $200,000 - $299,999. This, of course, has been largely driven by the Home Buyers Tax Credit. Throughout the region, 42.7% of the active listings fall within the $100,000 - $199,999 range and 22.6% of the listings are within $200,000 - $299,999. Condominiums continue to provide a healthy percentage of active listings - 20% in March.

It stands to reason that the bulk of the March sales would also likely be found in these very same price ranges. Forty-five percent of the March home sales were between $100,000 - $199,999 while an additional 21.5% occurred in the price range of $200,000 - $299,999. With respect to condominiums, almost 61% of the sales for March were between $100,000 - $199,999 with 20.2% between $200,000 - $299,999.

March median prices in Dane County reversed a previous downward trend - $205,000 as compared to $198,000 one year ago and $197,750 in February 2010. For the first quarter, the median sales price for Dane County was $200,000, just slightly below the 2009 first quarter median sales price of $203,000.

Buyers have only through April 30, 2010 to obtain an accepted offer in order to take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. While closings of home sales are expected to remain positive through the end of June (the last day for closings in order to qualify for the Tax Credit), there is a fair amount of curiosity as to the impact on the market "post Tax Credit." Hopefully a strong foundation has been built: inventories are strong; interest rates continue to be very affordable; prices are within reach. Employment and economic recovery will also be strong factors in the success of the housing market as we move through the remainder of 2010.

« February Statistics

Written By: Kevin King

2010 Off to Positive Start
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS March 15th, 2010

Through the first two months of 2010, home sales for South Central Wisconsin continue the positive results started in the last half of 2009. After a very slow start one year ago, 2009 sales nudged ahead of 2008 at year end. The start of 2010 hopefully is carrying that momentum forward.

Dane County sales of 270 single family homes/condominiums for February were substantially higher than the 223 sales reported for the same time last year. This is the 7th time in the last 8 months that monthly sales have exceeded the sales of the previous year. For the first two months of 2010, Dane County sales are ahead of last year by 79 units (453-374) - a 22% increase.

This positive news has not been limited to Dane County. Columbia, Dodge, Rock and Sauk Counties all have equaled Dane County by bettering sales over one year ago in seven of the last months. Sauk County has a streak of 6 months in a row of equal or better sales and Rock County is working on a string of 5 months in a row. Grant County sales dropped in February, breaking its string of 5 straight months of higher sales. Green County is trailing only slightly - exceeding sales in 6 of the last 8 months. Iowa County sales dropped this February in comparison to last year, but total sales for 2010 are ahead of 2009.

Interest rates remain at excellent levels - currently hovering around the 5% level for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. WHEDA is back in the home loan market with its new WHEDA Fannie Mae Advantage program - a fixed rate 30 year mortgage designed for first time homebuyers. Yet qualification requirements continue to be higher than years past.

Inventory of active listings has remained healthy and relatively stable - but is still much higher overall than 2005 when the increase in supply began its rapid increase. Median prices for the first two months reflect a decrease - down approximately 6% for Dane County and approximately 7% for the South Central Wisconsin region. This change reflects, in part, the shift in the market influenced by the Home Buyer Tax Credit. This influence is likely to continue over the next six weeks, until the expiration of the Credit (accepted offers must be in place no later than April 30 with closing to be no later than June 30, 2010).

Statistical Narratives 2009

« December Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

2009 Home Sales Finish Strong
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS

South Central Wisconsin home sales in 2009 may have begun at a whisper, but the volume was turned up the end of the year.

Dane County home sales for the fourth quarter of 2009 were 37% higher than the fourth quarter of 2008, and 9% higher than the fourth quarter of 2007. While typically the fourth quarter accounts for about 17% of the total home sales for the year, the fourth quarter brought in 22% of the 2009 sales for Dane County. With the close of the third quarter, 2009 sales in Dane County were lagging behind 2008 by 4.5%, but fourth quarter sales nudged 2009 annual sales ahead of 2008 by 2%. There were 5,451 homes recorded sold in Dane County in 2009 as reported through the South Central Wisconsin MLS.

For the whole South Central Wisconsin region (Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa, Rock, and Sauk Counties), 2009 fourth quarter sales were 39% higher than 2008, and 12% higher than 2007. There were 11,578 homes recorded sold through the South Central Wisconsin MLS in 2009. This represents an increase of 5.7% when comparing 2009 to 2008. When looking at the individual counties within the South Central Wisconsin region, Columbia, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa and Sauk all join Dane with annual 2009 sales outpacing 2008. Only sales in Rock County lagged behind 2008, but even this was by only 1.6%.

Strong fourth quarter activity can be attributed to buyers pushing to make the original first-time home buyer tax credit deadline of November 30, which has been extended and expanded to include some existing homeowners. Buyers now have until April 30 to secure an accepted offer, and then until June 30 to close. Because of this push to close by November 30, some feared December sales numbers would be weak. While December of 2009 did finish 45 sales behind December of 2008 in Dane County, December 2009 actually outpaced December of 2008 for the whole South Central Wisconsin region by 20 sales.

« November Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

November home sales in Dane County were more than double the number reported last November. To be more precise, this November posted sales 111.6% higher than last November! This unusual increase can be attributed to buyers pushing to make the original first-time home buyer tax credit deadline of November 30, which has been extended and expanded to include some existing homeowners. Buyers now have until April 30 to secure an accepted offer, and then until June 30 to close.
November marks five months in a row in which Dane County home sales outpaced last year. While the first half of 2009 started out slow when compared to 2008, the second half of 2009 has shown an increase of 24% over the same five month period last year.

This substantial increase in the number of homes sold was also seen throughout the whole South Central Wisconsin region, which saw an increase of 81.7% as a whole for this November as compared to last. The percentage increase in sales over last year for the second half of 2009 was slightly higher than Dane County, with the South Central region as a whole posting an increase of 25% as compared to July - November of 2008.

The number of homes for sale, although still strong, continues to track behind 2008 as has been the case all year. At the end of November, there were 4,336 homes available for sale in Dane County, which is a decrease of 11.8% as compared to last November. In South Central Wisconsin there were 11,930 homes available which is down 8.8% compared to November of 2008. Almost 60% of the homes available for sale in the South Central WI region are priced below $200,000.

Home buyers in South Central Wisconsin will continue to benefit from a healthy inventory of reasonably priced homes, historically low interest rates, and the extended and expanded home buyers tax credit as they enter 2010.

« October Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

Wisconsin home sales are up. South Central Wisconsin regional home sales are up. Dane County home sales are up. For the first time since the recession began nearly two years ago, home sales are up across all three geographic levels as compared to last year at this time.

Last week, the Wisconsin REALTORS Association released third quarter sales numbers that showed an increase of 5.8 percent for the state, and a 12.5 percent increase for the South Central Wisconsin region as compared to the third quarter of 2008. The South Central Wisconsin region showed the strongest growth in the state. For this same time period, Dane County saw an 11 percent increase, which represents almost 200 more homes sold in the third quarter this year as compared to that same July - September time period last year.

This positive performance has continued with October posting the fifth straight month of sales above last year for South Central Wisconsin, and the fourth straight month for Dane County. October sales for South Central Wisconsin were 32% higher, and Dane County sales were 25% higher than last October.

There is little doubt that this momentum is in part due to first-time home buyers responding to the home buyer tax credit which was due to expire in November, but was recently extended through April. In looking at Dane County sales over the past four years, in 2006, 2007, and 2008, homes selling for under $200,000 accounted for 41-43% of total homes sold. That number has jumped to 48.5% in 2009. While this is good news for sellers who have homes priced below $200,000, it is not necessarily bad news for sellers in the upper ranges, as sales in the lower ranges release those sellers to become buyers of homes in higher price tiers. In addition, the newly added tax credit for existing homeowners who have lived in their current residence for five of the prior eight years, and increased income allowances will provide immediate incentive for a much larger group looking to purchase.

« September Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

The stock market has once again reached the 10,000 level and there seems to be a more optimistic view of the market in general. Home sales have shown a nice rebound in comparison to September of last year, and mortgage rates have remained very affordable. In the eight county reporting district tracked by the South Central Wisconsin MLS, home sales increased from last September in seven of the eight counties. Only Rock County lagged last year's results and Dane County showed nearly a 20 percent increase in reported sales activity.

The $8,000 tax credit sunset is rapidly closing in and we have seen many first time buyers take advantage of the incentive. Homes in the $100,000 to $200,000 bracket constitute approximately 42% of all active residential listings on the South Central Wisconsin MLS, but account for over 47% of all sales. In contrast, homes with list prices of $300,000 and up make up nearly 20% of all active residential listings, but account for only about 8.5% of all sales.

The September results mark the third straight month that sales in Dane County surpassed the same month from last year. An extension of the tax credit beyond November may be the determining factor in how the balance of 2009 performs. Certainly inventory and mortgage rates are making this a buyer's market and the credit has helped get many consumers off the fence. Confidence seems to have gained ground and recent articles in the local newspapers have been supportive. It is encouraging to see the media once again get behind the message we have been sending for the last year, "It's a great time to buy a home!"

« August Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

August statistics for residential properties in Dane County showed the second straight month of increases in both average selling price and median selling price. Although both indicators are down for year to date numbers, we have seen two consecutive months of increases, indicating that we may have seen some recovery in the mid to upper priced home market. Residential sales also showed a slight increase over last August's totals, marking the second straight month that 2009 exceeded 2008. On August 31st, the total active residential listings in Dane County were over 11% less than August 31st, of 2008. When taken individually, these statistics aren't particularly impressive; but they are encouraging when we look at where our market has been for the last two years. In four of our eight primary reporting counties, the median price was actually higher than in 2008.

Most economists now agree that we are in a recovery mode. Although nearly all concede that the recovery will be slow and prolonged, just getting some positive news back in the media will go a long way towards instilling confidence in the market. Foreclosures and short sales have, and will continue to be issues in our market, but with more stability in the financial market, and continued low mortgage rates, some of the fence sitting buyers are more eager to commit.

« July Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

The July sales statistics show some very positive signs of recovery in our local markets. Looking exclusively at the Dane County residential sales, the 754 reported sales compares favorably with the 706 reported sales of July 2008. This is the first time that a reporting month has shown an increase from the prior year since August of 2007 exceeded August of 2006. In fact, in all eight of the primary counties reporting through the South Central Wisconsin MLS, every county experienced an increase from last July. For each of the last five years, July has shown a drop in sales activity from June levels and an indication that the busiest part of the year is behind us in the Dane County market. It’s nice to see that July sales have continued the six month trend of increased activity.

Inventories are slowly reducing in most geographic areas, but the absorption rate is significantly faster in the lower price brackets. The tax credits available for first time buyers have really made a difference in our market mix, and it’s easy to see why the average and median sales prices have come down. With time running out for taking advantage of the credit, buyers need to make sure they have submitted their offers, and locked down closing dates that give them some flexibility in case changes need to be made on closing statements. With the new rules and regulations on the truth in lending statements, relying on a last second closing has become risky business.