Historical Statistical Narratives 2009

« December Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

2009 Home Sales Finish Strong
Dane County and South Central Wisconsin
As compiled by the South Central WI MLS

South Central Wisconsin home sales in 2009 may have begun at a whisper, but the volume was turned up the end of the year.

Dane County home sales for the fourth quarter of 2009 were 37% higher than the fourth quarter of 2008, and 9% higher than the fourth quarter of 2007. While typically the fourth quarter accounts for about 17% of the total home sales for the year, the fourth quarter brought in 22% of the 2009 sales for Dane County. With the close of the third quarter, 2009 sales in Dane County were lagging behind 2008 by 4.5%, but fourth quarter sales nudged 2009 annual sales ahead of 2008 by 2%. There were 5,451 homes recorded sold in Dane County in 2009 as reported through the South Central Wisconsin MLS.

For the whole South Central Wisconsin region (Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa, Rock, and Sauk Counties), 2009 fourth quarter sales were 39% higher than 2008, and 12% higher than 2007. There were 11,578 homes recorded sold through the South Central Wisconsin MLS in 2009. This represents an increase of 5.7% when comparing 2009 to 2008. When looking at the individual counties within the South Central Wisconsin region, Columbia, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa and Sauk all join Dane with annual 2009 sales outpacing 2008. Only sales in Rock County lagged behind 2008, but even this was by only 1.6%.

Strong fourth quarter activity can be attributed to buyers pushing to make the original first-time home buyer tax credit deadline of November 30, which has been extended and expanded to include some existing homeowners. Buyers now have until April 30 to secure an accepted offer, and then until June 30 to close. Because of this push to close by November 30, some feared December sales numbers would be weak. While December of 2009 did finish 45 sales behind December of 2008 in Dane County, December 2009 actually outpaced December of 2008 for the whole South Central Wisconsin region by 20 sales.

« November Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

November home sales in Dane County were more than double the number reported last November. To be more precise, this November posted sales 111.6% higher than last November! This unusual increase can be attributed to buyers pushing to make the original first-time home buyer tax credit deadline of November 30, which has been extended and expanded to include some existing homeowners. Buyers now have until April 30 to secure an accepted offer, and then until June 30 to close.
November marks five months in a row in which Dane County home sales outpaced last year. While the first half of 2009 started out slow when compared to 2008, the second half of 2009 has shown an increase of 24% over the same five month period last year.

This substantial increase in the number of homes sold was also seen throughout the whole South Central Wisconsin region, which saw an increase of 81.7% as a whole for this November as compared to last. The percentage increase in sales over last year for the second half of 2009 was slightly higher than Dane County, with the South Central region as a whole posting an increase of 25% as compared to July - November of 2008.

The number of homes for sale, although still strong, continues to track behind 2008 as has been the case all year. At the end of November, there were 4,336 homes available for sale in Dane County, which is a decrease of 11.8% as compared to last November. In South Central Wisconsin there were 11,930 homes available which is down 8.8% compared to November of 2008. Almost 60% of the homes available for sale in the South Central WI region are priced below $200,000.

Home buyers in South Central Wisconsin will continue to benefit from a healthy inventory of reasonably priced homes, historically low interest rates, and the extended and expanded home buyers tax credit as they enter 2010.

« October Statistics

Written By: Patty Stuard

Wisconsin home sales are up. South Central Wisconsin regional home sales are up. Dane County home sales are up. For the first time since the recession began nearly two years ago, home sales are up across all three geographic levels as compared to last year at this time.

Last week, the Wisconsin REALTORS Association released third quarter sales numbers that showed an increase of 5.8 percent for the state, and a 12.5 percent increase for the South Central Wisconsin region as compared to the third quarter of 2008. The South Central Wisconsin region showed the strongest growth in the state. For this same time period, Dane County saw an 11 percent increase, which represents almost 200 more homes sold in the third quarter this year as compared to that same July - September time period last year.

This positive performance has continued with October posting the fifth straight month of sales above last year for South Central Wisconsin, and the fourth straight month for Dane County. October sales for South Central Wisconsin were 32% higher, and Dane County sales were 25% higher than last October.

There is little doubt that this momentum is in part due to first-time home buyers responding to the home buyer tax credit which was due to expire in November, but was recently extended through April. In looking at Dane County sales over the past four years, in 2006, 2007, and 2008, homes selling for under $200,000 accounted for 41-43% of total homes sold. That number has jumped to 48.5% in 2009. While this is good news for sellers who have homes priced below $200,000, it is not necessarily bad news for sellers in the upper ranges, as sales in the lower ranges release those sellers to become buyers of homes in higher price tiers. In addition, the newly added tax credit for existing homeowners who have lived in their current residence for five of the prior eight years, and increased income allowances will provide immediate incentive for a much larger group looking to purchase.

« September Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

The stock market has once again reached the 10,000 level and there seems to be a more optimistic view of the market in general. Home sales have shown a nice rebound in comparison to September of last year, and mortgage rates have remained very affordable. In the eight county reporting district tracked by the South Central Wisconsin MLS, home sales increased from last September in seven of the eight counties. Only Rock County lagged last year's results and Dane County showed nearly a 20 percent increase in reported sales activity.

The $8,000 tax credit sunset is rapidly closing in and we have seen many first time buyers take advantage of the incentive. Homes in the $100,000 to $200,000 bracket constitute approximately 42% of all active residential listings on the South Central Wisconsin MLS, but account for over 47% of all sales. In contrast, homes with list prices of $300,000 and up make up nearly 20% of all active residential listings, but account for only about 8.5% of all sales.

The September results mark the third straight month that sales in Dane County surpassed the same month from last year. An extension of the tax credit beyond November may be the determining factor in how the balance of 2009 performs. Certainly inventory and mortgage rates are making this a buyer's market and the credit has helped get many consumers off the fence. Confidence seems to have gained ground and recent articles in the local newspapers have been supportive. It is encouraging to see the media once again get behind the message we have been sending for the last year, "It's a great time to buy a home!"

« August Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

August statistics for residential properties in Dane County showed the second straight month of increases in both average selling price and median selling price. Although both indicators are down for year to date numbers, we have seen two consecutive months of increases, indicating that we may have seen some recovery in the mid to upper priced home market. Residential sales also showed a slight increase over last August's totals, marking the second straight month that 2009 exceeded 2008. On August 31st, the total active residential listings in Dane County were over 11% less than August 31st, of 2008. When taken individually, these statistics aren't particularly impressive; but they are encouraging when we look at where our market has been for the last two years. In four of our eight primary reporting counties, the median price was actually higher than in 2008.

Most economists now agree that we are in a recovery mode. Although nearly all concede that the recovery will be slow and prolonged, just getting some positive news back in the media will go a long way towards instilling confidence in the market. Foreclosures and short sales have, and will continue to be issues in our market, but with more stability in the financial market, and continued low mortgage rates, some of the fence sitting buyers are more eager to commit.

« July Statistics

Written By: John Deininger

The July sales statistics show some very positive signs of recovery in our local markets. Looking exclusively at the Dane County residential sales, the 754 reported sales compares favorably with the 706 reported sales of July 2008. This is the first time that a reporting month has shown an increase from the prior year since August of 2007 exceeded August of 2006. In fact, in all eight of the primary counties reporting through the South Central Wisconsin MLS, every county experienced an increase from last July. For each of the last five years, July has shown a drop in sales activity from June levels and an indication that the busiest part of the year is behind us in the Dane County market. It’s nice to see that July sales have continued the six month trend of increased activity.

Inventories are slowly reducing in most geographic areas, but the absorption rate is significantly faster in the lower price brackets. The tax credits available for first time buyers have really made a difference in our market mix, and it’s easy to see why the average and median sales prices have come down. With time running out for taking advantage of the credit, buyers need to make sure they have submitted their offers, and locked down closing dates that give them some flexibility in case changes need to be made on closing statements. With the new rules and regulations on the truth in lending statements, relying on a last second closing has become risky business.